Yes position
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $65
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $935
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$105
Polymarket Trader
mat12
0xb4f266b1dc037f25921efaf6e09e85152ec3554f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $390.55
- Realized PnL
- $1.58K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.4%
- Current value
- $325.55
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $74.44
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $81.56
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $365
Yes position
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $260.32
Yes position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $230.92
Yes position
Israel military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150
Yes position
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $128.19
Yes position
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.2
Yes position
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $73.18
Yes position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.7
No position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.61
No position
OpenAI browser in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.51
No position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26
No position
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.64
No position
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.49
Yes position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.2
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.1
No position
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.21
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.45
No position
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.4
No position
Hawk Tuah OnlyFans by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98
No position
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95
No position
Trump declassifies Diddy list?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.43
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?Yes 44% 34 shares
- Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?Yes 28% 5 shares
- AI bubble burst in 2026?No 61% 100 shares
- Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Yes 17% 63.51 shares
- Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?No 4.5% 8,758.74 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Yes 5% 250 shares
- Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?No 95.2% 140 shares
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes 28% 600 shares
- Democratic sweep?No 18% 290 shares
- Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31?No 88% 9.63 shares
- Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?No 12.4% 159.8 shares
- NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?Yes 6% 750 shares