Polymarket Trader

frosklis

0xb4f70b3289b2896a54390ed881e5b9539f0a9e15

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $23.45
Realized PnL: $34.02
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.35
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 27.9%
Current value: $1.35
Potential payout: $4.83
Potential profit: $3.48
Multiplier: 3.58x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $4.11
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $3.09
Potential payout: $4.26
Potential profit: $1.17
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $1.09

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.8%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $4.1
Potential profit: $3.29
Multiplier: 5.06x
User PnL: -$0.19

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 81.9%
Current value: $2.97
Potential payout: $3.63
Potential profit: $0.66
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will England win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.28
Potential profit: $3.28
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.08
Potential profit: $3.08
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $1.11
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Ends Mar 31, 2028

Implied probability: 90.6%
Current value: $2.42
Potential payout: $2.67
Potential profit: $0.25
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $1.85
Potential payout: $2.36
Potential profit: $0.51
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 85.4%
Current value: $1.89
Potential payout: $2.21
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.11

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75
Potential profit: $1.75
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 87.9%
Current value: $1.52
Potential payout: $1.73
Potential profit: $0.21
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.06

Nick Kyrgios position

Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.72
Potential profit: $1.72
User PnL: -$1

Flavio Cobolli position

Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.69
Potential profit: $1.69
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.43
Potential profit: $1.43
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2027

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $1.2
Potential profit: $0.63
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$0.42

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $1.19
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

New pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $1.12
Potential profit: $0.07
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $1.1
Potential profit: $0.03
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 92.6%
Current value: $0.98
Potential payout: $1.05
Potential profit: $0.08
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Rafael Jodar position

Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.27

No position

Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3

No position

Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.23

Kyrgios position

Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios

Ends Dec 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina position

Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92

Yes position

Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.92

Joao Fonseca position

Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38

Hubert Hurkacz position

Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

No position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

No position

Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19

Emma Raducanu position

HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.89

No position

OpenAI browser by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.78

No position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.77

Alcaraz position

Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.7

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.65

No position

Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 8?

No 67% 1.49 shares
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 8?

No 71% 1.41 shares
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Yes 47% 4.26 shares
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Yes 61% 4.92 shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 84.8% 2.36 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 82.7% 3.63 shares
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 93.5% 1.07 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 39.4% 2.53 shares
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

No 96.6% 1.06 shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

No 96% 1.06 shares
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

No 98.9% 1.02 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?

No 91% 4.41 shares