Polymarket Trader

araura

0xb50cc8c59983d43547a4765e001a345455ed5463

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $496.85
Realized PnL: -$2.93
Win rate: 12.5%
Open positions: 7
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $281.09
Potential payout: $288.74
Potential profit: $7.65
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $32.77

Yes position

Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $195.4
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $4.6
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $21.4

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $171.41
Potential profit: $171.41
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$5.52

Yes position

Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $20.36
Potential payout: $20.71
Potential profit: $0.35
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.56

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 7?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $6.25
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 7?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $1.5

Up position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 41.9%
Multiplier: 2.39x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 50% by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 49.5%
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

BitBoy convicted?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

BitBoy convicted?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.08

No position

Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.17

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 10?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.23

No position

Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.4

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.55

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on February 17?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.57

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Yes 87% 100 shares
Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Yes 87% 100 shares
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?

No 86% 74.74 shares
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?

No 86% 200 shares
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?

No 86% 5 shares
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?

No 86% 9 shares
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Yes 88% 10 shares
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Yes 56% 10.71 shares
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Yes 76% 7.89 shares
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 7.4% 15.38 shares
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 7.8% 15.38 shares
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Yes 7.1% 16.44 shares