Polymarket Trader

ErCap

0xb513cfa6d1ef4c69a993bae7e7529e24e859f628

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $840.09
Realized PnL: $946.02
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $593.85
Potential payout: $642
Potential profit: $48.15
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $35.31

No position

Kurds declare independence from Iran?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $234.16
Potential payout: $235.82
Potential profit: $1.65
User PnL: $34.16

Yes position

Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$17.6

Yes position

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$38

Yes position

Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$13.4

Yes position

Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$9.8

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Juan Roberth Flores win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.5
Potential profit: $99.5
User PnL: -$11.01

Yes position

Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $49.01
Potential profit: $49.01
User PnL: -$9.38

Yes position

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.37
Potential profit: $47.37
User PnL: -$18.48

Yes position

Will Trump post "Boeing" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$15.6

No position

Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 89.6%
Current value: $12.07
Potential payout: $13.48
Potential profit: $1.41
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$0.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152

Yes position

Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $103.4

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.5

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.31

No position

Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.36

No position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.55

Yes position

Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 6?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.8

Yes position

Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.46

Yes position

Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.87

Yes position

Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.34

No position

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23

No position

Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.82

Yes position

Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.92

Yes position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.6

Down position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.45

Yes position

Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.9

Yes position

Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.13

Yes position

Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 99% 274 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 46% 43.48 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 18% 111.11 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Up 96% 5.21 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Up 92% 5.43 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Up 95% 5.26 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 65% 230.77 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Up 99% 5.05 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Up 99% 5.05 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Up 99% 5.05 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Up 97% 5.15 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Up 84% 5.95 shares