Polymarket Trader

mamba

0xb52fdee5d5001f93784c5314699ecc6a2e913c2d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $10.51
Realized PnL: $28.14K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.37
Potential payout: $2.75K
Potential profit: $2.75K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.43

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.24
Potential payout: $2.49K
Potential profit: $2.49K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$26.11

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.43K
Potential profit: $2.43K
User PnL: -$294.54

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.58K
Potential profit: $1.58K
User PnL: -$561.87

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $1.45K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$25.76

Yes position

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $6.71
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.34K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$121.02

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$175

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.15K
User PnL: -$282.88

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
User PnL: -$91.18

Yes position

Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $924.2
Potential profit: $923.74
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$31.89

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$123

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$20

No position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$185

No position

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $317.04
Potential profit: $317.04
User PnL: -$127.97

No position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $312.13
Potential profit: $312.13
User PnL: -$165.43

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $278.34
Potential profit: $278.34
User PnL: -$89.92

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$24

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.32
Potential profit: $37.32
User PnL: -$27.99

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.52K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $3.89K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.06K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.68K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.55K

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.54K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38K

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $865.35

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $858.7

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $632.69

US position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $597.18

No position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $493.19

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $466

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $429.29

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $413.01

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $409.5

No position

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $370.13

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $360

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.78

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $215.79

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 2.3% 5,000 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 70% 46.36 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

No 71% 133.98 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Yes 54% 53.39 shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 15% 600 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

No 0.3% 177 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Yes 3.7% 561.59 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Yes 0.5% 1,179.51 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?

Yes 0.1% 4,100 shares
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Yes 18% 26.94 shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 13% 50.01 shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 13% 154.91 shares