Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.25
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.75
Polymarket Trader
Prinzeuge
0xb557dc93416e066a090e504fe9691bffad0def84
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $298.72
- Realized PnL
- $2.52K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $41.4
- Potential payout
- $306.67
- Potential profit
- $265.27
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$131.8
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $20.25
- Potential payout
- $270
- Potential profit
- $249.75
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $140.02
- Potential payout
- $266.71
- Potential profit
- $126.69
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $6.67
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $260
- Potential profit
- $260
- User PnL
- -$49.3
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $259.99
- Potential profit
- $259.99
- User PnL
- -$23.18
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $247.86
- Potential profit
- $247.86
- User PnL
- -$35.2
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $9.13
- Potential payout
- $220
- Potential profit
- $210.87
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$11.55
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $219.1
- Potential profit
- $219.1
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $197.5
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.9
No position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $197.02
- Potential profit
- $197.02
- User PnL
- -$38.12
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $176.67
- Potential profit
- $176.67
- User PnL
- -$3.7
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $170
- Potential profit
- $170
- User PnL
- -$5.05
Yes position
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $165.92
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $56.51
- Potential payout
- $166.22
- Potential profit
- $109.71
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- $4.34
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $153.85
- Potential profit
- $153.85
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $152.44
- Potential profit
- $152.44
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Current value
- $4.43
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $145.58
- Multiplier
- 33.90x
- User PnL
- -$27.68
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $15.26
- Potential payout
- $145.35
- Potential profit
- $130.09
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$9.45
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $142.73
- Potential profit
- $141.94
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$6.07
Yes position
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.33
- Potential profit
- $133.33
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $6.43
- Potential payout
- $131.2
- Potential profit
- $124.77
- Multiplier
- 20.41x
- User PnL
- -$3.57
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $308.05
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300.08
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $284.88
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.99
No position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.22
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.23
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $117.5
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.82
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.48
No position
Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.63
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.6
No position
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.89
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $71.11
Yes position
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68
No position
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.62
No position
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.47
No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.79
Yes position
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.83
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.02
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.99
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.84
No position
Will Trump say "Secondary tariff" or "Sanction" during conference with Putin on August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.23
No position
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?
Ends Aug 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 15% 66.67 shares
- Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 61.1% 81.87 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes 3% 66.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 11% 40 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 58% 121.72 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 68% 240 shares
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?No 50% 67.72 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Yes 1.1% 92.73 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 7.7% 41.66 shares
- Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 1.8% 119.99 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 14% 30 shares
- Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?Yes 48% 10 shares