Yes position
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $225
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $49.78K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$75
Polymarket Trader
TradingBear
0xb567608cc44dd0c2a083b3f9eea78e7d973e1575
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $430.19
- Realized PnL
- $29
- Win rate
- 63.2%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 19
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "Gay" in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $49.45
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $180.55
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$62.05
Y
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 65%
- Current value
- $91
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $49
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $43.8
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $106.48
- Potential profit
- $106.48
- User PnL
- -$9.38
Yes position
Will BNB reach $1000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $94.33
- Potential profit
- $94.33
- User PnL
- -$14.79
Yes position
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $8.65
- Potential payout
- $91
- Potential profit
- $82.36
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$3.19
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65
- Potential profit
- $65
- User PnL
- -$5.2
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65
- Potential profit
- $65
- User PnL
- -$5.2
Y
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $56.1
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $3.9
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $32.1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $38.46
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.31
- Potential profit
- $37.31
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.03
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.14
No position
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.91
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.2
Yes position
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6
Yes position
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.2
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.45
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
No position
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$4.77
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.9
Yes position
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$8.25
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$29.54
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 0.6% 50,000 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 17% 462 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 17% 409 shares
- Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Yes 13% 91 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 26% 53 shares
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 64% 200 shares
- Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes 61% 200 shares
- Will BNB reach $1000 in January?Yes 9% 64.33 shares
- Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes 72.7% 65 shares
- Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?Yes 10.4% 10 shares
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes 5.6% 45.43 shares
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes 5.7% 14.57 shares