No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $15.52
- Potential payout
- $15.53
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.52
Polymarket Trader
0xb58e...d4a5
0xb58e0f4e4ed7beed66b42844f84202183c7ed4a5
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $29.72
- Realized PnL
- $10.94
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $14.2
- Potential payout
- $14.24
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.99
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.96
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.83
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.73
No position
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.52
No position
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
No position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 19, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes 0.1% 1,125 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 13?No 98.8% 5.78 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 13?No 99% 10.1 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 13?No 98% 9.17 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 13?No 97.4% 6.15 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?No 95.8% 6.25 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 96.6% 15.53 shares
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 13?No 98.2% 8.14 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 13?No 98.9% 11.11 shares
- Will DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?No 97% 8.24 shares
- Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes 0.2% 1,125 shares
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 16?No 99.6% 10.5 shares