Polymarket Trader

michealAR1

0xb5a0719e5811aab869133597b830f52e79e5ae08

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $102.74
Realized PnL: $4.1
Win rate: 33.3%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 3
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $600
User PnL: -$6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $88.48
Potential profit: $88.48
User PnL: -$9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.33
Potential profit: $58.33
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $36.46
Potential payout: $52.08
Potential profit: $15.63
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $11.46

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73.9%
Current value: $30.79
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $10.88
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $10.79

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $7.12
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $31.35
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$2.88

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $19.63
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $17.41
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$0.37

Over position

Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.85
Potential profit: $29.85
User PnL: -$20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.08
Potential profit: $23.08
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $8.75
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $13.98
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$1.25

No position

Will Russia enter Siversk by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.93
Potential profit: $21.93
User PnL: -$8.92

Yes position

Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $20.83
User PnL: -$10

Over position

Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.69
Potential profit: $20.69
User PnL: -$12

Over position

Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $20.41
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$8.9

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.63
Potential profit: $15.63
User PnL: -$5

Under 2.5 position

Nikola Bartunkova vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $14.71
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.51
Potential profit: $13.51
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.11
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.13
Potential profit: $2.13
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.61

Rafael Fiziev position

UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$2.51

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

No 48% 41.67 shares
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card)

Rafael Fiziev 56% 26.79 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?

No 54% 37.04 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

No 26% 38.46 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?

Yes 44.5% 20 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 44% 22.73 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?

Yes 14.2% 52.63 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?

Yes 19% 52.63 shares
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5

Over 49% 20.41 shares
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score

Yes 48% 20.83 shares
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score

Yes 37% 13.51 shares
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Over 67% 29.85 shares