Polymarket Trader

nidrac

0xb5e6efd5bacdb2330f0dc83ac91f4a7e0ac945f8

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $9.16
Realized PnL: $934.81
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $999.97
Potential profit: $992.47
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $534.4
Potential profit: $534.4
User PnL: -$0.74

Yes position

Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $241.25
Potential profit: $241.25
User PnL: -$3.82

Yes position

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.66
Potential payout: $175
Potential profit: $173.34
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.69

France position

Men's Round of 16 - Germany vs. France

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $93.44
Potential profit: $93.44
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$4.8

Yes position

Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.48
Potential profit: $25.48
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.33
Potential profit: $25.33
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$1.23

Yes position

Will Emilien Jacquelin (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.88
Potential profit: $16.88
User PnL: -$1.28

Yes position

Will Fabien Claude (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Men's 15km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Maduro mugshot released by Monday?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9
Potential profit: $9
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Team Sprint Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.4
Potential profit: $7.4
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: XC - Men's Team Sprint Free at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.4
Potential profit: $7.4
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.09
Potential profit: $5.09
User PnL: -$0.32

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.04
Potential profit: $5.04
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.01
Potential profit: $2.01
User PnL: -$0.21

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.52

Yes position

Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2%
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: $98.95

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $83.18

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $77.05

Yes position

Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $70.09

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.1%
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $60.24

Yes position

Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $52.96

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $36.9

Yes position

Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 1.9%
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: $35.07

Yes position

French election called by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.7

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 1?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.93

Yes position

Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 3.9%
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: $25.47

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 3.3%
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: $24.5

Yes position

Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $24.49

Yes position

Nicolas Sarkozy released from custody by November 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.97

Yes position

Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $15.92

Yes position

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 2.2%
Multiplier: 46.51x
User PnL: $15.15

No position

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $15

No position

French election called by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.88

No position

Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $12.7

Yes position

Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $12.62

Yes position

Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $10.97

No position

Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 17?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.81

Yes position

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.75

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Yes 16% 10 shares
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?

Yes 4.9% 25 shares
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

No 61% 10.22 shares
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 1.4% 75 shares
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.5% 9,708.65 shares
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

No 63% 13.95 shares
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 85 shares
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.7% 9,773.42 shares
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

Yes 48% 10 shares
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.8% 1,500 shares
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 2,350.79 shares
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Yes 0.6% 20 shares