Polymarket Trader

FireFly

0xb5faaa8c69b3919066092e81301164468e294bc1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.49K
Realized PnL: $3.09K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $3.2K
Potential payout: $236.98K
Potential profit: $233.78K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$1.54K

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $244.72
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $893.51
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $45.72

Yes position

Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $41.81
Potential payout: $674.34
Potential profit: $632.53
Multiplier: 16.13x
User PnL: -$8.19

No position

Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $446.62
Potential profit: $446.62
User PnL: -$43.36

Yes position

Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $424
Potential profit: $424
User PnL: -$114.48

Yes position

Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $273.66
Potential profit: $273.66
User PnL: -$11

No position

Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $202.71
Potential profit: $202.71
User PnL: -$75

No position

Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12?

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.12
Potential profit: $181.12
User PnL: -$77.88

Yes position

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $172.41
Potential profit: $172.41
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $168.55
Potential profit: $168.55
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04?

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.48
Potential profit: $119.48
User PnL: -$59.74

Yes position

Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $104
Potential profit: $104
User PnL: -$26

Yes position

Will Valencia CF win on 2026-01-03?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.93
Potential profit: $59.93
User PnL: -$39.54

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-12-12?

Ends Dec 12, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $47.62
User PnL: -$20

Real Madrid CF position

Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.42
Potential profit: $45.42
User PnL: -$10.9

Yes position

Will Türkiye vs. Georgia end in a draw?

Ends Oct 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $43.48
User PnL: -$10

500 position

Counter-Strike: GUN5 Esports vs 500 (BO3)

Ends Oct 14, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $41.67
User PnL: -$10

No position

Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.06
Potential profit: $39.06
User PnL: -$5

FC Barcelona position

Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.77
Potential profit: $38.77
User PnL: -$24.04

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.36
Potential profit: $36.36
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $706.6

Yes position

Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $397.88

No position

Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $317.36

No position

Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $287.3

No position

Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.6

No position

Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.77

Yes position

Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.54

Yes position

Will Usyk beat Fury?

Ends Dec 21, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $143.18

No position

Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.05

Yes position

Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.17

No position

Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.9

Over position

Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.56

Yes position

Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.15

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?

Ends Jul 14, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.86

Yes position

Will Ipswich Town vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?

Ends Sep 29, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.85

Yes position

Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score

Ends Dec 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.63

Real Madrid position

Real Madrid vs. Atalanta: UEFA Super Cup

Ends Aug 14, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.05

Yes position

Will Bournemouth beat Southampton?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.5

Yes position

Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.77

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.7

Top Esports position

LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)

Ends Oct 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.97

Yes position

Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.7

Arsenal FC position

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.1

KT Rolster position

LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.04

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 7.4% 674.34 shares
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)

Portugal 69% 172.46 shares
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 99.5% 588 shares
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5

Over 56% 125 shares
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 58% 172.41 shares
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 73% 403 shares
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18% 550 shares
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 70% 571.43 shares
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5)

Denmark 99% 65 shares
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5)

Denmark 99% 70 shares
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 72% 99 shares
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 71% 86 shares