Polymarket Trader

tnl

0xb619ed5b378053f8309c307d2f7adf9c13665068

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $146.63K
Realized PnL: $145.4K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $16.5K
Potential payout: $3M
Potential profit: $2.98M
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $4.5K

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $500
Potential payout: $1M
Potential profit: $999.5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $6.8K
Potential payout: $800K
Potential profit: $793.2K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$1.61K

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $18.78K
Potential payout: $101.8K
Potential profit: $83.02K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $1.99K

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.6%
Current value: $11.57K
Potential payout: $100.17K
Potential profit: $88.6K
Multiplier: 8.66x
User PnL: $2.81K

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $5.65K
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $94.35K
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$109.7

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $6.65K
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $93.35K
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$2.7K

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $12.59K
Potential payout: $97.95K
Potential profit: $85.36K
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $1.57K

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $6.7K
Potential payout: $83.19K
Potential profit: $76.49K
Multiplier: 12.42x
User PnL: -$1.21K

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $5.5K
Potential payout: $40K
Potential profit: $34.5K
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: -$1.18K

Yes position

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $10.73K
Potential payout: $24.1K
Potential profit: $13.38K
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: $2.63K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $252.86
Potential payout: $21.99K
Potential profit: $21.73K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $10.99

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.11K
Potential profit: $14.11K
User PnL: -$3.53K

No position

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $6.3K
Potential payout: $13.4K
Potential profit: $7.1K
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: -$1.88K

No position

Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $7.49K
Potential payout: $10.78K
Potential profit: $3.29K
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $24.03

Yes position

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $35
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.97K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$565

Yes position

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $65
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.94K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $45
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.95K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.05K

Yes position

Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $45
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.95K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$225

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $6.43K
Potential payout: $8.19K
Potential profit: $1.76K
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $286.81

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $5.59K
Potential payout: $6.62K
Potential profit: $1.03K
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $1.49K

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $6.28K
Potential payout: $6.28K
Potential profit: $3.14
User PnL: $3.66K

Yes position

Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $6.24K
Potential payout: $6.28K
Potential profit: $40.8
User PnL: $128.69

No position

Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $5.89K
Potential payout: $6.01K
Potential profit: $111.1
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $152.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.67K

Yes position

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.58K

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.27K

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 6?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.63K

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 5?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.2K

No position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.06K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 1?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.67K

Yes position

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.23K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.03K

Yes position

Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.6K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.5K

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.13K

Yes position

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.08K

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.92K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.73K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.46K

Yes position

Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.35K

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2K

Paris Saint-Germain FC position

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.16K

No position

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.08K

Yes position

Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-16?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.04K

Yes position

Will Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3K

Yes position

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?

Ends Mar 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.92K

No position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.88K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 62% 2,944.25 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-23?

Yes 75% 8,194.47 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 9.7% 6,981.12 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.5% 2,428.51 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.6% 141.29 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.5% 1,209.72 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 0.1% 4,999.99 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.1% 4,999.96 shares
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 96.5% 100 shares
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5

Over 48% 280.92 shares
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5

Over 30% 36 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-27?

Yes 77% 2,500 shares