Yes position
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.83K
- Potential profit
- $14.83K
- User PnL
- -$240.87
Polymarket Trader
TungstenTamaki
0xb6ab16fe891cd8e44e2113c6fa67e6ba786025db
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $1.37K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.22K
- Potential profit
- $10.22K
- User PnL
- -$320.33
Yes position
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.46K
- Potential profit
- $9.46K
- User PnL
- -$81.26
No position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.66K
- Potential profit
- $5.66K
- User PnL
- -$149.59
Yes position
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 12-15%?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.03K
- Potential profit
- $5.03K
- User PnL
- -$6.7
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 29 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.35K
- Potential profit
- $4.35K
- User PnL
- -$7.61
Yes position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the second-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.25K
- Potential profit
- $4.25K
- User PnL
- -$73.47
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.94K
- Potential profit
- $2.94K
- User PnL
- -$69.67
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.9K
- Potential profit
- $2.9K
- User PnL
- -$11.98
Yes position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.68K
- Potential profit
- $2.68K
- User PnL
- -$21.9
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 28 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.56K
- Potential profit
- $2.56K
- User PnL
- -$6.66
Yes position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 205 and 219 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.52K
- Potential profit
- $2.52K
- User PnL
- -$7.54
Yes position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 220 and 234 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.43K
- Potential profit
- $2.43K
- User PnL
- -$10.28
Yes position
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.37K
- Potential profit
- $2.37K
- User PnL
- -$25.15
No position
Japanese Snap Election Called by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.99K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- User PnL
- -$9.55
Yes position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 190 and 204 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.82K
- User PnL
- -$8.39
Yes position
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + GL/PvdA + VVD + CDA?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 25 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.74K
- Potential profit
- $1.74K
- User PnL
- -$15.05
Yes position
Will Jonathan Jaffe win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.54K
- User PnL
- -$2.08
Yes position
Will Bryn Kenney win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.48K
- Potential profit
- $1.48K
- User PnL
- -$4.42
Yes position
Will Hanks win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $1.43K
- User PnL
- -$1.43
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Mike Matusow win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.23K
- Potential profit
- $1.23K
- User PnL
- -$1.23
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $389.3
No position
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $359.48
Yes position
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $127.72
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99.8
Yes position
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $57.16
Yes position
Will there be no new Prime Minister of Japan?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $37.72
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.86
Yes position
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.65
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34
No position
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.95
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.88
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.12
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.9
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.56
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.83
No position
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.17
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.57
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.97
Yes position
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.66
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.28
Yes position
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.17
Yes position
Will the Doomsday Clock move by ten seconds or more?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.92
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.83
Yes position
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No 1.7% 165.66 shares
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Yes 0.6% 2,077.04 shares
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win fewer than 190 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?Yes 0.2% 116.52 shares
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?No 0.4% 80.32 shares
- Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?Yes 0.5% 375.7 shares
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win fewer than 190 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?Yes 1.1% 30 shares
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 190 and 204 seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?Yes 0.7% 50.6 shares
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Yes 0.3% 207.75 shares
- Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Yes 0.2% 3,768.3 shares
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?Yes 13% 263 shares
- Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 0.9% 100 shares
- Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 1.5% 200 shares