No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $83.52
- Potential payout
- $91.78
- Potential profit
- $8.26
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $7.34
Polymarket Trader
0xb6AC3431404c44182af9C87da77df96853A9c1fb-1781526417485
0xb6ac3431404c44182af9c87da77df96853a9c1fb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $256.32
- Realized PnL
- -$19.09
- Win rate
- 18.2%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 11
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $72.17
- Potential payout
- $87.48
- Potential profit
- $15.31
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.41
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $77.21
- Potential payout
- $84.38
- Potential profit
- $7.17
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $6.68
No position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $23.41
- Potential payout
- $48.78
- Potential profit
- $25.37
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- $3.41
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $87.57
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $18.47
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
No position
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
N
No position
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Multiplier
- 55.56x
- User PnL
- -$104.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No 83% 91.78 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 91% 84.36 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No 80.9% 87.48 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95.2% 26.85 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?No 41% 48.78 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-26?Yes 60% 37.22 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes 81.8% 12.22 shares
- Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?No 78.2% 8.64 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 84.1% 26.85 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 47.7% 14.28 shares
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes 49% 14.29 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes 61.8% 16.18 shares