Polymarket Trader

summonair

0xb70381dfb6c316dfde5f493996cf1cd2a74cbf46

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.33
Realized PnL: $56.92
Win rate: 87.5%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $266.87
Potential profit: $266.87
User PnL: -$4.8

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $2.85
Potential payout: $139
Potential profit: $136.15
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.38
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.46
Potential profit: $25.46
User PnL: -$4.84

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.53
Potential profit: $23.53
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $15
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.71
Potential profit: $14.71
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.3
Potential profit: $11.3
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 11?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.7

No position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $8.7
Potential profit: $7.65
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0.96

Yes position

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $8
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.85
Potential profit: $3.85
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.61
Potential profit: $1.61
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.01

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.26

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.66

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.48

Yes position

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 9?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 32.7%
Multiplier: 3.06x
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.77

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: $0.46

Yes position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 8?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

70k position

Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.62

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.76

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?

Yes 1.7% 58.82 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?

No 1.4% 139 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?

Yes 16% 12.5 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 32.8% 5.52 shares
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Yes 2.2% 14 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18.1% 5.52 shares
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Yes 30% 6.67 shares
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?

Yes 9.8% 20.5 shares
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30?

Yes 15% 6.67 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Yes 15% 23.07 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Yes 6% 33.33 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 5.5% 5.95 shares