Yes position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.27K
- Potential profit
- $14.27K
- User PnL
- -$596.03
Polymarket Trader
theta-thunberg
@theta_thunberg
0xb7606d0d3719c88f9b868a13015881af5222ccd7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.8K
- Realized PnL
- $28.41K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$382.85
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $1.88K
- Potential payout
- $4.65K
- Potential profit
- $2.77K
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $441.72
Yes position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.3K
- Potential profit
- $3.3K
- User PnL
- -$263.17
Yes position
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.5
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $15.22
- Potential payout
- $2.03K
- Potential profit
- $2.01K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$167.3
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $1.11K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $890
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$179.99
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $7.84
- Potential payout
- $1.31K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$134.67
Yes position
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- User PnL
- -$122.13
Yes position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- User PnL
- -$15.5
N
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $95
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $905
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$95
Yes position
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$140
Yes position
Critical Discord Incident by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $956.47
- Potential profit
- $956.47
- User PnL
- -$146.6
Yes position
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $6.78
- Potential payout
- $848.04
- Potential profit
- $841.26
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- $1.71
No position
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $762.71
- Potential profit
- $762.71
- User PnL
- -$186.4
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$40.2
Yes position
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $3.13
- Potential payout
- $568.5
- Potential profit
- $565.37
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$17.91
Yes position
ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $559.93
- Potential profit
- $559.93
- User PnL
- -$26.71
N
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $464.49
- Potential payout
- $552.96
- Potential profit
- $88.47
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $38.71
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $213.6
- Potential payout
- $540.75
- Potential profit
- $327.16
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $2.7
Yes position
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$117.5
Yes position
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.55
- Potential payout
- $275.97
- Potential profit
- $275.42
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.24
Yes position
Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $270
- Potential profit
- $270
- User PnL
- -$199.8
No position
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 21?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Andy Burnham – Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.46K
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.3K
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16K
No position
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.02K
Yes position
Prince Andrew released by February 19?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51K
No position
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
Yes position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $959.09
Yes position
Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026?
Ends Mar 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $901.12
Yes position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $877.02
Yes position
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $867.57
No position
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $859.15
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $786.71
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $766.72
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $700.66
Yes position
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $678.05
No position
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $653.96
Yes position
ChatGPT Outage by April 3?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $633.63
Yes position
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $598.04
Yes position
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $582.45
Yes position
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $520.41
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $506.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 31% 4,649.67 shares
- Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?Yes 99.5% 81.51 shares
- Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?Yes 12% 10 shares
- Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?No 99% 245.86 shares
- Starmer out by May 31, 2026?No 95.5% 5,000 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 29.1% 5,924.82 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 41.2% 5,924.82 shares
- Starmer out by May 15, 2026?Yes 3.8% 10,000 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No 79.7% 3,000 shares
- Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31?No 24.4% 762.71 shares
- Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??Yes 64% 2,310.01 shares
- Kash Patel out by June 30?Yes 31% 500 shares