ford78

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $3.28K
Potential payout: $17.75K
Potential profit: $14.48K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $585.53

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $993.47
Potential payout: $13.52K
Potential profit: $12.52K
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$253.28

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.7%
Current value: $1.82K
Potential payout: $13.36K
Potential profit: $11.54K
Multiplier: 7.33x
User PnL: -$356.59

Yes position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $1.1K
Potential payout: $7.55K
Potential profit: $6.46K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$2.24K

Yes position

Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.89K
Potential profit: $6.89K
User PnL: -$656.9

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 60.4%
Current value: $4.09K
Potential payout: $6.77K
Potential profit: $2.68K
Multiplier: 1.66x
User PnL: $1.37K

Yes position

Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Implied probability: 93.2%
Current value: $6.28K
Potential payout: $6.74K
Potential profit: $461.87
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $635.82

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $5.31K
Potential payout: $6.21K
Potential profit: $900.6
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $939.65

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.69K
Potential profit: $4.69K
User PnL: -$630.82

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $3.43K
Potential payout: $4.06K
Potential profit: $628.63
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $845.78

No position

Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 90.7%
Current value: $3.08K
Potential payout: $3.4K
Potential profit: $317.67
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$77.17

Yes position

Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$29.89

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $94.8
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $2.31K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: $13.2

Yes position

Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.09K
Potential profit: $2.09K
User PnL: -$33.9

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.35K
Potential profit: $1.35K
User PnL: -$776.5

No position

Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $1.07K
Potential payout: $1.21K
Potential profit: $138.78
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $134.43

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $95.12
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$890.87

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.08K
User PnL: -$565

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
User PnL: -$697.43

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 20.9%
Current value: $220.38
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $836.62
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: $89.32

Yes position

Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $37.41
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$192.59

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $887.55
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $162.8
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $393.69

No position

Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $882.32
Potential payout: $933.67
Potential profit: $51.35
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $43.91

Yes position

Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $368
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $432
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.86K

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.62K

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.54K

Yes position

Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.14K

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85K

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.71K

No position

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $1.11K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08K

Yes position

Will MrBeast's latest video get 18–20 million views on day 1?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

No position

Will MrBeast's latest video get less than 45 million views on week 1?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $992.69

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $965.89

Yes position

Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $961.9

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $946.6

Yes position

Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $902.18

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $676.05

Yes position

Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $630

No position

Will MrBeast's next video get between 39.5 and 40.0 million views on day 6?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $603.52

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $544

No position

US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $525.45

No position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $501.31

No position

Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $484.58

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $472.31

No position

Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?