Polymarket Trader

marksman

0xb7d54bf1d0a362beb916d9cb58a04c41d67e0789

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.22K
Realized PnL: $78.77K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $1.02K
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $584.95
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$40.01

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $805.62
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $305.58
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $24.92

Yes position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $50.48
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$60.64

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $310.01
Potential payout: $712.66
Potential profit: $402.65
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $16.75

No position

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57.4%
Current value: $349.49
Potential payout: $609.4
Potential profit: $259.91
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $59.83

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $379.55
Potential payout: $597.72
Potential profit: $218.17
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$6.17

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $323.6
Potential payout: $369.83
Potential profit: $46.23
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $31.66

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $56.76
Potential payout: $366.22
Potential profit: $309.46
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $9.16

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 45.1%
Current value: $123.62
Potential payout: $274.42
Potential profit: $150.79
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $15.46

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $120.29
Potential payout: $212.94
Potential profit: $92.65
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 23.8%
Current value: $47.7
Potential payout: $200.86
Potential profit: $153.15
Multiplier: 4.21x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $196.5
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$0.9

No position

Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $194.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $5.7
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $4.4

Yes position

Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $107.6
Potential payout: $193.88
Potential profit: $86.28
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 33.9%
Current value: $61.02
Potential payout: $180.28
Potential profit: $119.26
Multiplier: 2.95x
User PnL: $35.34

No position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $130.74
Potential payout: $161.41
Potential profit: $30.67
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $3.23

No position

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 69.8%
Current value: $60.1
Potential payout: $86.12
Potential profit: $26.02
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?

Ends Aug 9, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $3.15
Potential payout: $69.98
Potential profit: $66.83
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $26.6
Potential payout: $52.67
Potential profit: $26.07
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$3.42

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.4%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $50.23
Potential profit: $45.53
Multiplier: 10.70x
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Will JPMorgan say "Credit card" during earnings call?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $16.23
Potential payout: $35.28
Potential profit: $19.05
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $0.76

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $27.87
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $12.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $7.9
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $2.7

No position

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.9%
Current value: $10.18
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $1.82
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.07K

Yes position

Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.32K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.94K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.96K

Yes position

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.57K

Yes position

Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?

Ends Feb 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.07K

Yes position

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.16K

Yes position

Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.86K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.18K

Yes position

2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 35-64

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.17K

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.14K

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.03K

Yes position

2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.95K

Yes position

Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.78K

Yes position

Will Real Madrid win La Liga?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.7K

Yes position

Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.61K

Yes position

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.54K

Yes position

Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.51K

Yes position

Will another Pump.fun coin be first to $1b?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

Yes position

2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.45K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.45K

Yes position

Arsenal wins the Premier League?

Ends May 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.29K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?

Ends Nov 7, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27K

Yes position

Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?

Ends Dec 8, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.25K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.4% 14 shares
Will Rodri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 1.8% 24.55 shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

No 64.8% 396 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 64% 174.34 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 64% 25.27 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 64% 188.91 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 64% 11.08 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 64% 200 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 64% 200.11 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Yes 64% 203.13 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 43% 204.65 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

No 73% 55.25 shares