No position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $62.16
- Potential payout
- $63.4
- Potential profit
- $1.24
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.5
Polymarket Trader
spartak1
0xb8168c23210a2503ed21d2738f228554f3465f0e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $515.37
- Realized PnL
- $10.49
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 5
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $50.55
- Potential payout
- $57.77
- Potential profit
- $7.22
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $5.65
No position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $37.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $12.25
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$4.25
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $42.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $7.75
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $2.5
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $44.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $5.75
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $41.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $8.75
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $2.75
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $38.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $11.5
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $36.6
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $3.4
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.4
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $38.54
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $1.46
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.18
No position
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $30.9
- Potential payout
- $37
- Potential profit
- $6.11
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $1.29
No position
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $27.3
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $2.7
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $26.85
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $3.15
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.45
No position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $28.89
- Potential payout
- $29.98
- Potential profit
- $1.09
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.06
Khamzat Chimaev position
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.2
- Potential profit
- $12.2
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $9.59
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.41
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.39
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.26
No position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16
No position
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
Yes position
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No 89% 50 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?No 88% 40 shares
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No 81% 30 shares
- UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Khamzat Chimaev 82% 12.2 shares
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No 93.9% 20 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No 91.9% 10 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes 82% 12 shares