yueyueyn

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.95
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.3K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$3.6

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $1.16K
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $16.51
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.98

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.51
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.53

No position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $798.79
Potential payout: $801.6
Potential profit: $2.81
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $798.8
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.4

No position

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $778.33
Potential profit: $777.55
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$0.78

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $608.94
Potential profit: $608.64
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $600.96
Potential profit: $600.66
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $520
Potential profit: $519.22
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.81
Potential payout: $401.81
Potential profit: $400
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.31

No position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $170.82
Potential payout: $171.85
Potential profit: $1.03
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $158.32
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $1.68
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $127.94
Potential payout: $128
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $125.23
Potential payout: $127.2
Potential profit: $1.97
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $8.67

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $99.75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $0.25
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.62
Potential payout: $96
Potential profit: $95.38
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $4.17
Potential payout: $92.74
Potential profit: $88.57
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.46

No position

Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $79.96
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $8.3
Potential payout: $66.4
Potential profit: $58.1
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $27.45
Potential payout: $63.84
Potential profit: $36.39
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$1.09

Yes position

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $2.8
Potential payout: $58.89
Potential profit: $56.09
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $2.04
Potential payout: $48.1
Potential profit: $46.05
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: $1.03

No position

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $25.12
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $6.88
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $8.64
Potential payout: $32
Potential profit: $23.36
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: $0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: $35.06

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.24

Yes position

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $1.92

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.52

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

Up position

Solana Up or Down - July 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41

Up position

Solana Up or Down - July 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.37

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.37

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

Down position

Solana Up or Down - July 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16

Down position

XRP Up or Down - July 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.06

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

Down position

XRP Up or Down - July 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

Up position

XRP Up or Down - July 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

Down position

Solana Up or Down - July 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.8

Down position

Solana Up or Down - July 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.72

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - July 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET