Yes position
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.6%
- Current value
- $5.78
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $44.23
- Multiplier
- 8.66x
- User PnL
- -$1.77
Polymarket Trader
chopwood
0xb88616639b7766bb405f20992e43aa043ea23024
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $117.92
- Realized PnL
- $42.3
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $3.98
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $46.03
- Multiplier
- 12.58x
- User PnL
- -$2.03
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $47.25
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$14.75
Y
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $15.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $34.75
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$4.75
Yes position
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Ends Nov 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $16.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $33.25
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $45.25
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$4.75
No position
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Sep 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $1.53
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $48.48
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$4.98
Yes position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $5.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $44.75
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$14.75
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $2.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $47.5
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.5
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $6.12
- Potential payout
- $48.96
- Potential profit
- $42.84
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.69
No position
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $38
- Potential profit
- $37.09
- Multiplier
- 41.67x
- User PnL
- -$3.65
No position
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $10.14
- Potential payout
- $34.97
- Potential profit
- $24.83
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.05
No position
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $5.03
- Potential payout
- $24.54
- Potential profit
- $19.51
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Yes position
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?
Ends Sep 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $5.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $14.7
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$5.3
No position
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $85B by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$7.4
Yes position
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Ends Oct 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $10.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $9.1
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $2.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17.7
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
No position
Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $3.6
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.4
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$1.6
N
No position
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $0.46
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.54
- Multiplier
- 43.48x
- User PnL
- -$3.14
Yes position
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $3.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.3
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 17, 2027- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.87
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$2.23
Yes position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $6.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $13.7
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$2.5
No position
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2.6
Yes position
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $16.5
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$3.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 21%
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- $4.4
Yes position
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.2%
- Multiplier
- 16.26x
- User PnL
- $3.41
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $2.8
Yes position
Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- $2.7
No position
Tuyo FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $2.11
Yes position
Tuyo FDV above $20M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $2.09
No position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- $1.99
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.84
No position
Ethereal FDV above $25M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.55
No position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $1.44
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- $1.4
Y
Yes position
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 27%
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- $1.2
No position
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.07
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Multiplier
- 28.57x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- $1
Down position
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?Yes 12% 11 shares
- Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?Yes 26% 5 shares
- City Protocol FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes 27% 8 shares
- City Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes 27% 11.5 shares
- Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $165B by June 30?Yes 21% 15 shares
- Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $30B by December 31?Yes 7% 20 shares
- Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch?No 64% 16.07 shares
- Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch?Yes 34% 5 shares
- Will Ethereal launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes 45% 20 shares
- Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes 34% 20 shares
- Will Hotstuff launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes 22% 20 shares
- Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?Yes 35.9% 20 shares