Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.4%
- Current value
- $97
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $403
- Multiplier
- 5.15x
- User PnL
- -$73
Polymarket Trader
deadinternettheory
0xb88c541ae98ee0c5294feca0cb9adfcef3ced652
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $298.74
- Realized PnL
- $804.17
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $32.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $467.5
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$72.5
Yes position
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9%
- Current value
- $36
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $364
- Multiplier
- 11.11x
- User PnL
- -$117.14
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $7.11
- Potential payout
- $302.71
- Potential profit
- $295.6
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$21.64
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$4.8
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $22.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $177.1
- Multiplier
- 8.73x
- User PnL
- -$13.1
Yes position
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $8
- Potential payout
- $199.98
- Potential profit
- $191.98
- Multiplier
- 25.00x
- User PnL
- -$36.95
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $160.11
- Potential profit
- $160.11
- User PnL
- -$50.68
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $12.75
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $137.25
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$51.45
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $147.51
- Potential profit
- $147.51
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $31.43
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $108.57
- Multiplier
- 4.45x
- User PnL
- -$94.29
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1.2
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$32
Yes position
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $17.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $82.5
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$18.5
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $5.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $94.5
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$6.5
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $4.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.95
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$6.35
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 40%
- Current value
- $24
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $36
- Multiplier
- 2.50x
- User PnL
- -$16.2
No position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$26
Yes position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$3.6
Yes position
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$8.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $248.4
Yes position
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.14
No position
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.85
No position
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55
Yes position
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.05
Yes position
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.88
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 80.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $15.18
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.03
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.7
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.6
Gold position
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.8
Yes position
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.98
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.88
Yes position
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.58
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.42
No position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.36
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.2
No position
Will Walmart acquire TikTok?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.88
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.64
No position
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? (February 1)
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.4
No position
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $2.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No 83.8% 110 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 90% 25 shares
- Will AppLovin acquire TikTok?No 98.1% 50 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 93.1% 100 shares
- Will Walmart acquire TikTok?No 99% 118 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 99.9% 20 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 62.8% 20 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 52% 50 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 9.5% 302.71 shares
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes 67% 60 shares
- Will Walmart acquire TikTok?No 94% 118 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 73% 20 shares