Yes position
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.11K
- Potential profit
- $7.11K
- User PnL
- -$21.55
Polymarket Trader
DoesPeterThielKnowAboutThis
0xb8a90290332fa3ea9885f1e2ce479e6baf0c2948
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $52.27
- Realized PnL
- $26.25K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.72K
- Potential profit
- $6.72K
- User PnL
- -$54.51
Yes position
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.67K
- Potential profit
- $6.67K
- User PnL
- -$6.67
Yes position
Will Jose Vinicius Junior win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.67K
- Potential profit
- $6.67K
- User PnL
- -$6.67
Yes position
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.45K
- Potential profit
- $6.45K
- User PnL
- -$18.73
Yes position
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.36K
- Potential profit
- $6.36K
- User PnL
- -$13.5
Yes position
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.82K
- Potential profit
- $5.82K
- User PnL
- -$12.13
Yes position
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.82K
- Potential profit
- $4.82K
- User PnL
- -$67.22
No position
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.43K
- Potential profit
- $4.43K
- User PnL
- -$623.93
Yes position
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.07K
- Potential profit
- $4.07K
- User PnL
- -$12.22
Yes position
Will Alexander Isak win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.33K
- User PnL
- -$3.33
Yes position
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.1K
- Potential profit
- $3.1K
- User PnL
- -$92.89
Yes position
Will Desire Doue win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $52.27
- Potential payout
- $2.83K
- Potential profit
- $2.77K
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- -$250.48
Yes position
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?
Ends Oct 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.76K
- Potential profit
- $2.76K
- User PnL
- -$212.59
Yes position
Will Quiroga and Rodríguez advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?
Ends Aug 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.69K
- Potential profit
- $2.69K
- User PnL
- -$70.76
Yes position
Will 'Superman' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.67K
- Potential profit
- $2.67K
- User PnL
- -$183.33
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $2.6K
- User PnL
- -$25.78
Yes position
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $2.4K
- User PnL
- -$7.78
Yes position
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $2.4K
- User PnL
- -$18.59
Yes position
Will no leader be out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.23K
- Potential profit
- $2.23K
- User PnL
- -$575.65
Yes position
Will Rodríguez and Medina advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?
Ends Aug 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.18K
- Potential profit
- $2.18K
- User PnL
- -$4.53
Yes position
Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.12K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- User PnL
- -$152.27
Yes position
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $2.08K
- User PnL
- -$9.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?
Ends Dec 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.03K
Yes position
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?
Ends Dec 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.55K
Yes position
Will "How to Train Your Dragon" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $78m and $85m?
Ends Jun 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.55K
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
Will "Fantastic Four: The First Steps" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $115-125m?
Ends Jul 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
Yes position
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 70m on opening weekend?
Ends Apr 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
Yes position
Will 'A Working Man' gross between 14-17m on opening weekend?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
No position
Will "28 Years Later" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $34m?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $978.58
Yes position
Will 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?
Ends Apr 6, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $950.81
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $922.74
No position
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $915.03
Yes position
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $140-150m opening weekend?
Ends May 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $856.44
No position
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $849.67
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 49% and 51% of the vote in the South Korea election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $811.21
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $800.75
Yes position
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $774.07
Yes position
Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting?
Ends Jul 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $745.72
Yes position
Will 'Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning' gross between $60-65m opening weekend?
Ends May 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $728.85
Yes position
German Bundestag dissolved in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $727.61
No position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $706.06
Yes position
Will 'Thunderbolts' gross between $72m and 77m on opening weekend?
Ends May 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $703.05
Yes position
Will 'Nosferatu' gross over $30m on 5-day opening weekend?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $680.08
Yes position
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $646.19
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.3% 180.68 shares
- Starmer out by February 28, 2026?No 95.6% 60 shares
- Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?No 99.9% 100 shares
- Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Yes 32% 32.92 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 40% 20 shares
- Government shutdown on Saturday?Yes 53% 30 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes 3.5% 200 shares
- Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?Yes 15% 100 shares
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?Yes 3.4% 200 shares
- Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?Yes 2.1% 69.28 shares
- Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?Yes 25.7% 200 shares
- Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Yes 6.8% 2.52 shares