Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.3%
- Current value
- $75.08
- Potential payout
- $213
- Potential profit
- $137.92
- Multiplier
- 2.84x
- User PnL
- $57.83
Polymarket Trader
dragon4379
0xb8ad2b7251c41afb172c520fdfffaddfcfaed8a3
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $77.16
- Realized PnL
- $87.8
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $79
- Potential profit
- $79
- User PnL
- -$4.5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $70
- User PnL
- -$1.89
No position
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39
- Potential profit
- $39
- User PnL
- -$1.21
Yes position
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37
- Potential profit
- $37
- User PnL
- -$1.92
Yes position
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $2.08
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $32.92
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31
- Potential profit
- $31
- User PnL
- -$2.32
No position
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24
- Potential profit
- $24
- User PnL
- -$22.46
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.97
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.01
Yes position
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.4
Yes position
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.32
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.13
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.99
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.88
No position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.74
No position
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.73
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.57
No position
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
No position
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?Yes 6.4% 35 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?Yes 8.1% 213 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on June 3?Yes 98.6% 21 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3?No 95.9% 18 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?Yes 5.6% 72 shares
- Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18?No 91.9% 9 shares
- Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?Yes 95.2% 50 shares
- Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes 5.2% 37 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Yes 2.7% 70 shares
- Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?Yes 5.7% 40.15 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 15?Yes 7.5% 31 shares
- Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?No 97.9% 10 shares