No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $1.32K
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $205.47
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $249.29
Polymarket Trader
valarmorgulis00
0xb8c7ed4669c40bc349ff633d09707fb686b05845
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $4.24K
- Realized PnL
- $4.54K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $472.5
- Potential payout
- $540
- Potential profit
- $67.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $70.9
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $21.58
- Potential payout
- $520
- Potential profit
- $498.42
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$125.32
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $454.1
- Potential payout
- $457.99
- Potential profit
- $3.89
- User PnL
- $51.97
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $293.13
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $56.88
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $77.98
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $301.37
- Potential payout
- $333
- Potential profit
- $31.63
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $78.26
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $288.7
- Potential payout
- $290
- Potential profit
- $1.31
- User PnL
- $21.6
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $231.25
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $18.75
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $31.25
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $194.78
- Potential payout
- $245
- Potential profit
- $50.22
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $41.28
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $108.85
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $1.16
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $8.74
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $108.13
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $1.87
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $5.83
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $109.56
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- User PnL
- $6.05
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.8%
- Current value
- $78.8
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $21.2
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $28.8
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $1.89
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $88.11
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$51.21
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $62.8
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $17.2
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $14.8
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $54.95
- Potential payout
- $57.69
- Potential profit
- $2.74
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $3.76
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $52.74
- Potential payout
- $53
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- User PnL
- $2.01
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $49.83
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.17
- User PnL
- $4.83
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $28.42
- Potential payout
- $34.04
- Potential profit
- $5.62
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $4.94
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $14.53
- Potential payout
- $15.46
- Potential profit
- $0.93
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.94
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $870.7
Up position
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 13?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $559.29
Down position
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on February 12?
Ends Feb 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $499.22
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $488.97
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 11?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $298.2
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.01
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $142.11
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $127.33
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.48
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.55
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $116
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.48
Yes position
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.71
No position
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.08
No position
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.75
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.79
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.45
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $60
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.91
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 8AM ET
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.27
No position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Yes 99.9% 48 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?No 98.9% 99.99 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes 99.8% 120 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes 99.9% 276.99 shares
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5Over 13% 50 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Yes 99.8% 250 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?No 40% 110 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes 99.8% 2,890 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 99.8% 510 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?No 99.8% 300 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No 3.7% 220 shares
- Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?No 4% 200 shares