Polymarket Trader

CaptainCoinflip

0xb8fe807aa951e35af53fd0fee36abc303864ce76

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $49.66K
Realized PnL: $108.45K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $24.54K
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $462.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $12.04K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $462.5
Potential payout: $25K
Potential profit: $24.54K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$12.04K

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $14.62K
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $382.5
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $465.64

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5K
Potential profit: $12.5K
User PnL: -$25

No position

Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $2.69K
Potential payout: $2.76K
Potential profit: $67.57
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$2.14

No position

Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $2.54K
Potential payout: $2.55K
Potential profit: $11.47
User PnL: $16.16

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $6.25
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.49K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$118.75

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $128.52
Potential payout: $1.71K
Potential profit: $1.59K
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$307.99

No position

Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $1.68K
Potential payout: $1.71K
Potential profit: $26.47
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $10.24

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $81.48
Potential payout: $1.7K
Potential profit: $1.62K
Multiplier: 20.83x
User PnL: -$43.52

No position

Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $1.59K
Potential payout: $1.64K
Potential profit: $50.77
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$11.9

No position

Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $1.22K
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $41.74
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$19.35

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $9.91
Potential payout: $862.07
Potential profit: $852.16
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$40.09

Yes position

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $33.17
Potential payout: $721.16
Potential profit: $687.99
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: -$60.58

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $25.31
Potential payout: $666.08
Potential profit: $640.77
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$12.19

Yes position

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $37.77
Potential payout: $328.45
Potential profit: $290.68
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$12.23

Yes position

Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $1.24
Potential payout: $50.56
Potential profit: $49.32
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$8.98

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.59K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.82K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.79K

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.78K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.59K

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.52K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.78K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.77K

Yes position

Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.94K

Yes position

Israel strike on Iran on June 24?

Ends Jun 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.88K

Yes position

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.56K

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.92K

Yes position

Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.81K

Yes position

Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.78K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.71K

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 25, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.43K

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.05K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.96K

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.58K

No position

Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.53K

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.52K

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.44K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36K

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?

No 98.8% 261 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Yes 7.4% 1,697.56 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 10.6% 781.28 shares
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?

Yes 99.9% 246 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 16% 305 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 17% 1,010.99 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 18% 300.99 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 19% 200 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 26% 321.64 shares
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?

Yes 98.5% 71 shares
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?

Yes 98.3% 15 shares
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?

Yes 97.8% 55 shares