Polymarket Trader

SteadyMoon

0xb9ebfbdff8b76de95c3b386145afe7856b24e3e8

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $126.03
Realized PnL: $405.88
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $14.25
Potential payout: $102.88
Potential profit: $88.63
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$2.21

Yes position

Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $9.85
Potential payout: $45.82
Potential profit: $35.97
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$0.23

Yes position

Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.31
Potential payout: $30.76
Potential profit: $28.45
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$7.83

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $6.07
Potential payout: $20.58
Potential profit: $14.51
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $1.13

Yes position

Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $4.86
Potential payout: $15.94
Potential profit: $11.08
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $5.98
Potential payout: $10.41
Potential profit: $4.42
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $0.88

Yes position

Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $9.46
Potential profit: $9.42
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$4.9

No position

Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $9.34
Potential profit: $4.62
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$0.23

No position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $6.95
Potential payout: $9.33
Potential profit: $2.38
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $1.82

Yes position

Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $7.14
Potential payout: $9.33
Potential profit: $2.19
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $2.01

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $6.11
Potential payout: $9.19
Potential profit: $3.08
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $1.34

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $7.01
Potential payout: $8.93
Potential profit: $1.92
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $2.01

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $4.26
Potential payout: $8.36
Potential profit: $4.1
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$0.74

No position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $4.63
Potential payout: $8.2
Potential profit: $3.57
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$0.37

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $7.81
Potential payout: $8.06
Potential profit: $0.25
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.81

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 62.6%
Current value: $4.95
Potential payout: $7.91
Potential profit: $2.96
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $1.57
Potential payout: $7.46
Potential profit: $5.9
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$3.43

No position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 66.3%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $7.41
Potential profit: $2.5
Multiplier: 1.51x
User PnL: -$0.09

No position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $4.82
Potential payout: $7.14
Potential profit: $2.32
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 85.7%
Current value: $5.73
Potential payout: $6.68
Potential profit: $0.96
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.73

No position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $5.57
Potential payout: $6.55
Potential profit: $0.98
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.57

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $6.49
Potential payout: $6.49
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.49

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.77

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.98

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.15

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.3

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.41

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.33

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.47

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.11

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.64

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.19

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.63

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.63

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

Avalanche position

Wild vs. Avalanche

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.52

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

No 55% 9.33 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

No 63.2% 7.91 shares
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria?

Yes 52% 20 shares
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Yes 52.3% 9.46 shares
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria?

Yes 25.7% 19.98 shares
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria?

Yes 26% 19.38 shares
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 67.5% 7.41 shares
Argentina leading at halftime?

Yes 51% 9.35 shares
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

No 61% 8.2 shares
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?

Yes 32% 15.94 shares
Uruguay leading at halftime?

Yes 52% 9.35 shares
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 22% 22.91 shares