Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $76.78
- Potential payout
- $903.29
- Potential profit
- $826.51
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$78.22
Polymarket Trader
sgf77
0xba140e440891658a3f0e139cb605ece7516962b6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $230.41
- Realized PnL
- $204.72
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $6.54
- Potential payout
- $153.85
- Potential profit
- $147.31
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- -$13.46
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $109.76
- Potential profit
- $109.76
- User PnL
- -$90
Yes position
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $105.17
- Potential profit
- $105.17
- User PnL
- -$70
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $85.44
- Potential payout
- $86
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- User PnL
- $8.3
Jakub Mensik position
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78.01
- Potential profit
- $78.01
- User PnL
- -$11
Ilia Topuria position
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $48.85
- Potential profit
- $48.85
- User PnL
- -$39.08
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $4.62
- Potential payout
- $48.65
- Potential profit
- $44.03
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$25.38
Yes position
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.8%
- Current value
- $13.78
- Potential payout
- $36.51
- Potential profit
- $22.72
- Multiplier
- 2.65x
- User PnL
- $3.78
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.05
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.2
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.95
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.07
- Potential profit
- $29.07
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $19.23
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $18.52
- Potential profit
- $18.51
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.99
Yes position
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.52
- Potential profit
- $18.52
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.9%
- Current value
- $13.67
- Potential payout
- $15.39
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.82
No position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.1%
- Current value
- $11.86
- Potential payout
- $15.39
- Potential profit
- $3.53
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
No position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.8%
- Current value
- $11.47
- Potential payout
- $12.78
- Potential profit
- $1.31
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.6%
- Current value
- $3.84
- Potential payout
- $5.68
- Potential profit
- $1.84
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$0.67
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $2.35
- Potential payout
- $2.6
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.43
Juan Manuel Cerundolo position
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.72
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.32
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.01
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.3
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.56
Yes position
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.64
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.55
No position
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.74
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.41
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.02
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.73
No position
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.54
Rockets position
Knicks vs. Rockets
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.39
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $2.25
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.43
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?Yes 27.4% 36.51 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?Yes 86% 58.14 shares
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Yes 68% 44.12 shares
- Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?Yes 66% 75.76 shares
- Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?Yes 68% 29.41 shares
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?Yes 27% 18.52 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?No 89.7% 43 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?No 89.7% 43 shares
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander ZverevJakub Mensik 14.1% 78.01 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?No 78.1% 43.19 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5?No 77.9% 43.19 shares
- Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin LandaluceJuan Manuel Cerundolo 58% 51.72 shares