Polymarket Trader

0xba1f...4258

0xba1fda79aa26888e0536247cee7c67c6b5294258

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $296.9
Realized PnL: $1.18K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $105.41
Potential payout: $324.34
Potential profit: $218.93
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $7.03

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $13.26
Potential payout: $139.57
Potential profit: $126.31
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$31.74

Yes position

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.77
Potential payout: $90.53
Potential profit: $89.76
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$10.02

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $65.39
Potential payout: $76.03
Potential profit: $10.64
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $22.2

No position

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $67.64
Potential payout: $73.12
Potential profit: $5.48
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $22.17

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.29
Potential payout: $36.84
Potential profit: $36.55
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$7.91

Yes position

Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $18
Potential payout: $31.3
Potential profit: $13.3
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $11.74

Yes position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $2.65
Potential payout: $24.44
Potential profit: $21.79
Multiplier: 9.22x
User PnL: $0.23

No position

Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $19.4
Potential payout: $23.23
Potential profit: $3.83
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $4.28

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $19.83
Potential profit: $19.49
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$5.19

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $3.83
Potential profit: $0.08
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.22

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.48

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.96

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.43

Yes position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.72

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $68.24

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $65

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.92

Yes position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.97

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.49

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $44.6

No position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.65

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $40.4

No position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.76

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.28

No position

Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87%
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $38.11

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.36

Down position

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.88

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.35

Up position

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 6AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.3

Up position

Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.73

No position

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: $24.45

Up position

XRP Up or Down - April 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.34

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.53

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

No 27% 18.29 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

No 42% 3.64 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

No 29% 39.72 shares
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

No 18% 144.94 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Yes 8.4% 14.88 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Yes 8.7% 145.75 shares
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

No 9.8% 217.93 shares
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

No 73% 3.04 shares
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

No 83% 13.63 shares
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

No 67% 24.49 shares
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

No 58% 67.71 shares
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

No 59% 11.86 shares