No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $712.49
- Potential payout
- $750.38
- Potential profit
- $37.89
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $200.8
Polymarket Trader
Orkh
0xba8f0a51044792a22d430046305c282f4893ad42
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $951.53
- Realized PnL
- $521.72
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $340
- Potential profit
- $340
- User PnL
- -$1.02
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $81.4
- Potential payout
- $296
- Potential profit
- $214.6
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$5.4
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$86.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $95.25
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $54.75
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- -$9.15
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $2.1
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $117.9
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$6.3
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $2.87
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $67.13
- Multiplier
- 24.39x
- User PnL
- -$4.83
Yes position
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $3.55
- Potential payout
- $54.54
- Potential profit
- $50.99
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $0.82
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $5.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $44.25
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $12.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $37.25
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- $0.75
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $9.4
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $30.6
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.6
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.4%
- Current value
- $1.66
- Potential payout
- $37.78
- Potential profit
- $36.12
- Multiplier
- 22.73x
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.26
- Potential payout
- $36.67
- Potential profit
- $36.41
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$14.94
No position
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$11.2
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $21.28
- Potential profit
- $20.78
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $2.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $17.3
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.5
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $0.49
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.51
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.51
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 74%
- Current value
- $14.78
- Potential payout
- $19.99
- Potential profit
- $5.21
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.59
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $18.52
- Potential profit
- $17.53
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $0.93
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $13.36
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.07
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$2.1
Y
Yes position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $1.4
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $0.76
- Potential payout
- $5.26
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.03
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.66
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.34
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.77
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.4
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.61
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.61
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.48
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $17.85
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.43
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Multiplier
- 50.00x
- User PnL
- $15.69
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $15.06
Yes position
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.7
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.71
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.82
No position
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.74
Yes position
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.38
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.28
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.18
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.81
Y
Yes position
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.57
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.43
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?Yes 7% 14.29 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?No 77.5% 10.96 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?No 77.5% 2.58 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?No 77.4% 3.55 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes 13% 40 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 56% 100 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes 21% 8 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Yes 11% 70 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?No 91.2% 10 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 3.3% 149.98 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 2.7% 270 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Yes 37% 2.7 shares