Polymarket Trader

denizz

@denizz_poly

0xbaa2bcb5439e985ce4ccf815b4700027d1b92c73

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.4M
Realized PnL: $2.06M
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $950.38K
Potential payout: $951.8K
Potential profit: $1.43K
User PnL: $810.76K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $262.31K
Potential payout: $289.84K
Potential profit: $27.53K
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $70.71K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $217.31K
Potential payout: $248.36K
Potential profit: $31.04K
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $52.5K

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $106.09K
Potential payout: $230.63K
Potential profit: $124.54K
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $46.6K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $24.05K
Potential payout: $137.45K
Potential profit: $113.4K
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $8.64K

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $105.39K
Potential payout: $110.12K
Potential profit: $4.74K
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $9.73K

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $90.04K
Potential payout: $90.72K
Potential profit: $680.44
User PnL: $19.82K

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $77.72K
Potential payout: $89.85K
Potential profit: $12.13K
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $5.78K

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $88.85K
Potential profit: $88.85K
User PnL: -$58.54K

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $66.34K
Potential payout: $71.71K
Potential profit: $5.38K
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $13.04K

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.2%
Current value: $47.88K
Potential payout: $64.57K
Potential profit: $16.69K
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $14.82K

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $40.01K
Potential payout: $47.91K
Potential profit: $7.91K
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $9K

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $41.24K
Potential payout: $47.68K
Potential profit: $6.44K
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $6.38K

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $43.66K
Potential payout: $45.72K
Potential profit: $2.06K
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $408.43

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.3%
Current value: $43.4K
Potential payout: $45.56K
Potential profit: $2.16K
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $113.9

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $44.76K
Potential payout: $44.96K
Potential profit: $202.33
User PnL: $8.74K

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $33.92K
Potential payout: $40.4K
Potential profit: $6.48K
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $9.77K

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $37.71K
Potential payout: $40.33K
Potential profit: $2.62K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $858.81

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $37.66K
Potential payout: $37.72K
Potential profit: $56.58
User PnL: $31.63K

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $36.16K
Potential payout: $36.62K
Potential profit: $457.76
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $8.71K

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $25.76K
Potential payout: $31.03K
Potential profit: $5.28K
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $5.47K

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $26.83K
Potential payout: $30.31K
Potential profit: $3.49K
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.68K

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $26.78K
Potential payout: $27K
Potential profit: $215.98
User PnL: $6.22K

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $15.08K
Potential payout: $25.77K
Potential profit: $10.69K
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$22.27

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $382.6K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $284.62K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $250.56K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.27K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.25K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.72K

Yes position

Israel announces ceasefire by January 16?

Ends Jan 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.18K

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $66.76K

No position

Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.28K

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.88K

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.47K

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.38K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.16K

Yes position

Houthis agree to end attacks on shipping before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.81K

Yes position

Iran strike on Israel by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.86K

No position

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.31K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.68K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.31K

Yes position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.84K

Yes position

Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.44K

Yes position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.65K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.08K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.65K

Yes position

US strikes Yemen by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.41K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

No 94% 656 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 12% 22.2 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 12% 5,041.67 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 12.8% 2,049.43 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Yes 99% 841.14 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Yes 99% 3,609.44 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 21.9% 1.19 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 22.4% 5 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 24% 12,607.75 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 26.1% 767.05 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 27% 576.11 shares
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Yes 82% 464.58 shares