cohorts

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $22.98
Potential payout: $483.72
Potential profit: $460.74
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: $3.24

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $10.01
Potential payout: $444.79
Potential profit: $434.78
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: $4.14

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $15.47
Potential payout: $436.99
Potential profit: $421.52
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: $5.51

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $42.54
Potential payout: $257.83
Potential profit: $215.29
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $11.2

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $20.59
Potential payout: $179.06
Potential profit: $158.47
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $6.51

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $53.7
Potential profit: $53.7
User PnL: -$23.63

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51.61
Potential profit: $51.61
User PnL: -$29.37

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $51
User PnL: -$30.92

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50.08
Potential profit: $50.08
User PnL: -$23.54

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $28.73
Potential payout: $34.2
Potential profit: $5.47
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $14.56

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $24.06
Potential payout: $27.98
Potential profit: $3.92
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $9.23

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $18.19
Potential payout: $25.09
Potential profit: $6.9
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$2.18

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $16.68
Potential payout: $25.09
Potential profit: $8.41
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$1.58

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $17.13
Potential payout: $20.04
Potential profit: $2.91
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $18.94
Potential payout: $20.04
Potential profit: $1.1
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.55

No position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $19.79
Potential payout: $20.04
Potential profit: $0.25
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $15.33
Potential payout: $20.04
Potential profit: $4.71
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $15.73
Potential payout: $20.04
Potential profit: $4.31
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $16.53
Potential payout: $20.04
Potential profit: $3.51
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.55

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $16.06
Potential payout: $18.36
Potential profit: $2.3
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $14.2
Potential payout: $15.03
Potential profit: $0.83
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $14.72
Potential payout: $15.03
Potential profit: $0.31
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $9.9
Potential payout: $10.02
Potential profit: $0.12
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $62.79

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.54

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.72

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.45

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.68

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.57

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.37

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.56

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.53

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.07

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $9.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.13

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.7

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.58

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.58

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.02

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.91

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.66

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.65

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.4

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?