0xBb821B1532b9B1e489A782fB20A34c56bfEaE686-1732059821678

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $416.67
Potential profit: $416.67
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $152.78
Potential profit: $152.78
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $129.22
Potential profit: $129.22
User PnL: -$0.68

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $7.66
Potential payout: $102.13
Potential profit: $94.47
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$3.34

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95.24
Potential profit: $95.24
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $83.33
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $79.5
Potential profit: $79.5
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will someone else be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.52
Potential profit: $60.52
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.18
Potential profit: $60.18
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $54.58
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$4.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.08
Potential profit: $48.08
User PnL: -$25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.25
Potential profit: $41.25
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.47
Potential profit: $38.47
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.74
Potential profit: $28.74
User PnL: -$25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.32
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.83
Potential profit: $25.83
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.75
Potential profit: $21.75
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Biden resign in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $21.28
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $20.83
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.6%
Current value: $5.08
Potential payout: $19.84
Potential profit: $14.76
Multiplier: 3.91x
User PnL: $0.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.05

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.81

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.74

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.44

Yes position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.63

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.31

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.42

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.82

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET