Noctus

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $252
Potential profit: $252
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

South Africa position

International T20 Series: India vs South Africa (Game 5)

Ends Dec 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$6.3

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $177
Potential profit: $177
User PnL: -$5.16

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $167.5
Potential profit: $167.5
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Major cyberattack on Iran in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $167
Potential profit: $167
User PnL: -$3.04

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.4

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78
Potential profit: $78
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.51
Potential profit: $62.51
User PnL: -$0.5

Down position

Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on January 21?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46
Potential profit: $46
User PnL: -$1.01

Yes position

Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.71
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $35
User PnL: -$5.18

Yes position

Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.48
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.25
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $9.92
Potential payout: $31
Potential profit: $21.08
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$11.01

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$1.68

New Zealand position

International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 3)

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.42
Potential profit: $27.42
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $25.64
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $58.26

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.42

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.97

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.67

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.61

Royal Challengers Bangalore position

Punjab Kings vs. Royal Challengers Bangalore

Ends Jun 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.05

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.43

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.85

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.5

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.82

Yes position

Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?

Ends May 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.66

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $5.67

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.41

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.95

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.75

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?