LucyAI

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $9.35
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $100.65
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.19
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$9.69

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $35.87
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$8.83

Yes position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.23
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$6.9

Yes position

Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $7.1
Potential payout: $32.26
Potential profit: $25.16
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$2.9

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $23.07
Potential profit: $21.94
Multiplier: 20.41x
User PnL: -$11.56

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $3.37
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $17.04
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$6.63

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $8.21
Potential payout: $20.27
Potential profit: $12.06
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$6.79

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$7.4

No position

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $18.23
Potential payout: $18.39
Potential profit: $0.16
User PnL: $2.23

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.54
Potential profit: $17.54
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $17.24
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $3.11
Potential payout: $15.15
Potential profit: $12.05
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$1.89

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $12.97
Potential payout: $12.99
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $2.97

No position

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $11.15
Potential payout: $12.82
Potential profit: $1.67
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $1.15

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $12.38
Potential payout: $12.41
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $2.38

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $11.89
Potential payout: $11.9
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $1.89

No position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $11.76
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.71
Potential profit: $11.71
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $11.54
Potential payout: $11.59
Potential profit: $0.06
User PnL: $3.54

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $11.23
Potential payout: $11.27
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $3.23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $351.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $256.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.65

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.14

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.5

Bucks position

Mavericks vs. Bucks

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.42

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.51

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.82

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.15

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.93

Jazz position

Jazz vs. Heat

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $29.54

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET