Polymarket Trader

ethanblack

0xbcc53b644d20923a618c66c3fa0b26790bbe2276

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $117.33
Realized PnL: $503.73
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $530.07
Potential profit: $530.07
User PnL: -$119.5

No position

House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $423.33
Potential profit: $423.33
User PnL: -$21.89

No position

Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $393.86
Potential profit: $393.86
User PnL: -$58.7

Yes position

Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $310.44
Potential profit: $310.44
User PnL: -$8

$140 position

Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 17.2%
Current value: $41.55
Potential payout: $241.03
Potential profit: $199.48
Multiplier: 5.80x
User PnL: $1.49

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $32.22
Potential payout: $222.2
Potential profit: $189.98
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$68.78

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $23.47
Potential payout: $187.73
Potential profit: $164.26
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$34.64

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" on the Rachel Maddow Show on September 22?

Ends Sep 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $175.86
Potential profit: $175.86
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $167.86
Potential profit: $167.86
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $156.25
Potential profit: $156.25
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.33
User PnL: -$52

Yes position

Will Trump say "N Word" in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $122.31
Potential profit: $122.31
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$20

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $106.38
Potential profit: $106.38
User PnL: -$55.32

Yes position

Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 11, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $102.5
Potential profit: $102.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will anyone say "Killed Kenny" during South Park's prediction market episode?

Ends Sep 24, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.95
Potential profit: $98.95
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

Ends Nov 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.59
Potential payout: $84.39
Potential profit: $83.8
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$9.41

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $61.67
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.31
Potential profit: $57.31
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.58
Potential profit: $43.58
User PnL: -$5.38

Yes position

Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Ends Nov 7, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $14.5
Potential payout: $42.04
Potential profit: $27.54
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$2.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza?

Ends Aug 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.4

No position

Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.95

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.57

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.2

Yes position

Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.71

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.19

Yes position

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

Yes position

Will Trump say "Jesus" during September?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.48

Yes position

Will Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" 10+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?

Ends Sep 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.99

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.5

No position

Will Clavicular cry on stream by May 1, 2026

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.17

Yes position

Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?

Ends Sep 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.29

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.04

No position

Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.38

Yes position

Will no leader be out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will Trump say “Shit" or "Ass” this week? (November 10 - 16)

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Will Trump say "Radical left" 3+ times at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?

Ends Sep 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.32

Yes position

Will Trump say "Horrible thing" this week?

Ends Aug 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.49

Yes position

Will England win on 2025-09-09?

Ends Sep 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.92

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.62

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.38

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?

$140 10.7% 167.57 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

No 58% 13.79 shares
Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?

Yes 2% 14 shares
Will Drake feature Central Cee on ICEMAN?

Yes 31% 4.84 shares
Will Drake feature EsDeeKid on ICEMAN?

Yes 14.8% 6.78 shares
Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN?

Yes 17.7% 14.12 shares
Will Drake feature PARTYNEXTDOOR on ICEMAN?

Yes 13% 7.69 shares
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?

No 29% 21.04 shares
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN?

No 19% 21.04 shares
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?

$140 45% 10.97 shares
Will "Armani" be said on ICEMAN?

No 62% 3.11 shares
Will "LeBron" or "Bronny" be said on ICEMAN?

No 59% 3.32 shares