No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $5.01
Polymarket Trader
Arisha961
0xbe06a75a71b72d6b5286264f146a503cf0846389
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $15.09
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Latest Resolved Positions
No open position details returned
This trader has an open-position count, but open position cards are not available yet. Showing their latest closed positions instead.
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $3.8
No position
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.72
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $5.01
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $3.8
No position
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?
Ends Jun 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.72
No position
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?
Ends Mar 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Yes position
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 14-21?
Ends Mar 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referendum
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes 17% 1 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No 98.6% 3 shares
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?Yes 18% 10 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No 98% 42 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 47% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 46% 15 shares
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 62% 60 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 84% 44 shares
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 84% 36 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No 75% 55 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Yes 4.1% 42 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 95.5% 43 shares