Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $25.47K
- Potential payout
- $32.04K
- Potential profit
- $6.57K
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$1.77K
Polymarket Trader
simpleman
0xbe89905ca9a689f5129621b62fcf715b5a45b88c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $75.23K
- Realized PnL
- $119.15K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $7.48K
- Potential payout
- $7.9K
- Potential profit
- $426.76
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $394.58
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $5.74K
- Potential payout
- $7.04K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$5.06
No position
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $6.49K
- Potential payout
- $6.52K
- Potential profit
- $29.34
- User PnL
- $833.99
No position
US military draft authorized in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $5.26K
- Potential payout
- $5.63K
- Potential profit
- $366
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $201.12
No position
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $4.41K
- Potential payout
- $5.28K
- Potential profit
- $870.57
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $724.55
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $4.55K
- Potential payout
- $4.67K
- Potential profit
- $119.01
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $547.96
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $4.28K
- Potential payout
- $4.63K
- Potential profit
- $347.04
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $87.95
No position
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $1.88K
- Potential payout
- $2.21K
- Potential profit
- $331.27
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $206.25
No position
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $1.35K
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $174.77
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- -$22.12
No position
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $1.3K
- Potential payout
- $1.31K
- Potential profit
- $5.88
- User PnL
- $29.08
No position
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $1.12K
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $11.84
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $27.44
No position
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $874.44
- Potential payout
- $878.39
- Potential profit
- $3.95
- User PnL
- $9.22
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $429.03
- Potential payout
- $833.08
- Potential profit
- $404.04
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$70.96
Y
Yes position
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $711.19
- Potential payout
- $794.63
- Potential profit
- $83.44
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$11.92
No position
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $333.28
- Potential payout
- $584.81
- Potential profit
- $251.53
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- $26.28
No position
Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $555.63
- Potential payout
- $569
- Potential profit
- $13.37
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $32.15
No position
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $561.96
- Potential payout
- $567.92
- Potential profit
- $5.96
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $76.52
No position
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $405.29
- Potential payout
- $522.96
- Potential profit
- $117.67
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $88.07
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $519.15
- Potential profit
- $519.15
- User PnL
- -$222
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $171
- Potential payout
- $456
- Potential profit
- $285
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $35.32
No position
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $406.67
- Potential payout
- $444.44
- Potential profit
- $37.78
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $6.67
Yes position
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $9.62
- Potential payout
- $409.32
- Potential profit
- $399.71
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$40.17
No position
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $391.39
- Potential payout
- $399.99
- Potential profit
- $8.6
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $91.4
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $245.56
- Potential profit
- $245.56
- User PnL
- -$24.1
Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1.06
- Potential payout
- $235.29
- Potential profit
- $234.24
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$38.94
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $197.43
- Potential payout
- $220.6
- Potential profit
- $23.16
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $9.93
Yes position
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $210.63
- Potential profit
- $210.63
- User PnL
- -$130.5
Yes position
Will Trump nationalize elections?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $25.25
- Potential payout
- $202.04
- Potential profit
- $176.78
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$24.75
No position
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $169.28
- Potential payout
- $200.33
- Potential profit
- $31.05
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $107.4
No position
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $182
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $18
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $26
No position
Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $170
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $30
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $189
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $11
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.8%
- Current value
- $25.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $174.5
- Multiplier
- 7.84x
- User PnL
- -$28.5
Yes position
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $149.88
- Potential profit
- $149.88
- User PnL
- -$75.01
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $138.33
- Potential profit
- $138.33
- User PnL
- -$50
Y
Yes position
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$28.56
Yes position
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $9.62
- Potential payout
- $87.45
- Potential profit
- $77.83
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$15.38
Yes position
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $62.5
- User PnL
- -$25
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $25.26
- Potential payout
- $26.88
- Potential profit
- $1.61
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.42
Yes position
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.3
- Potential profit
- $24.3
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $22.85
- Potential payout
- $22.89
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $7.85
No position
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $19.77
- Potential payout
- $22.72
- Potential profit
- $2.95
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $2.73
No position
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.1%
- Current value
- $15.61
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $4.39
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $4.83
Yes position
Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7
- Potential profit
- $7
- User PnL
- -$1.4
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $5.02
- Potential payout
- $5.04
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $3.78
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.23
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $4.14
- Potential payout
- $4.17
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.97
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce Eric Schmitt as the next United States Attorney General by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25
- Potential profit
- $1.25
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25
- Potential profit
- $1.25
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.42K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.66K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.61K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.59K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.87K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.4K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.17K
Yes position
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46K
Yes position
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?
Ends Dec 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.07K
No position
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88K
No position
Trump second inauguration gets more viewers than first?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.84K
No position
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the next funding bill?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.81K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during Super Bowl pregame interview?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
Yes position
Will the Conservatives win between 140-149 seats in the next Canadian Election?
Ends Oct 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
Yes position
Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
No position
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
No position
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $992.96
Yes position
Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?
Ends Oct 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $938.37
Yes position
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $897.14
Yes position
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?
Ends Jan 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $849.66
Yes position
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $778.62
Yes position
Trump renames Gulf of Mexico to "Gulf of America" in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $716.79
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $711.06
Yes position
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?
Ends Jan 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $708.8
No position
Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $692.96
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $664.56
Yes position
Will 51 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $654.86
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $649.5
Yes position
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $625.7
Yes position
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $610.93
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $604.57
Yes position
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $598.75
Yes position
Will Trump say 'DEI' or 'diversity, equity, and inclusion' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $570.92
Yes position
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $570.79
Yes position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $554.62
No position
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $541.64
No position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $541.24
Yes position
Trump opens Arctic Wildlife Refuge for drilling in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $524.71
No position
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $496.38
Yes position
Will Trump and Elon say "Kickback" during their Feb 18 interview?
Ends Feb 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $433
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $428.46
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $415.14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 60% 833.08 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 42% 100 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 87% 2,500 shares
- Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference?Yes 41.2% 24.3 shares
- Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference?Yes 68% 14.71 shares
- Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?No 32.6% 30.64 shares
- Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference?Yes 40% 62.5 shares
- Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference?Yes 20% 7 shares
- Will Warsh say "Money" during June Press Conference?Yes 50.2% 49.81 shares
- Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference?Yes 23.8% 120 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No 92% 217.85 shares
- US military draft authorized in 2026?No 90% 308.87 shares