No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $8.45K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $1.55K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $1.45K
Polymarket Trader
AnonymousElephant69
0xbeb9d19f10274da29f21625a2c91fa5a00fd3870
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.65K
- Realized PnL
- $31.73K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $100.76
- Potential payout
- $145
- Potential profit
- $44.24
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $30.31
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $105.88
- Potential payout
- $144.05
- Potential profit
- $38.17
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $50.9
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.09K
Yes position
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.48K
No position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $17 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61K
Yes position
OpenAI browser by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77K
No position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35K
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33K
Yes position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32K
No position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
Team Liquid position
Valorant: T1 vs Team Liquid - Map 2 Winner
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $840
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $812.57
Team Liquid position
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid - Map 3 Winner
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $801.56
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $709.23
Yes position
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $698.28
All Gamers position
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $695.47
Yes position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $685.04
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $675.69
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $640
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $632.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 97.7% 4,199.98 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 53.3% 41.68 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 70% 9,995.88 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes 89% 332.92 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Yes 89% 23 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No 89% 28.33 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No 89% 1,059.74 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No 89% 15 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No 89% 50 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No 89% 161.4 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No 89% 10.41 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?No 89% 17.1 shares