Polymarket Trader

0xbf19...4496

0xbf19fb9b966bf0d916525e0487bfc9ab76334496

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $25.7
Realized PnL: -$1.9
Win rate: 50%
Open positions: 7
Closed positions: 8
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $5.04
Potential payout: $9.42
Potential profit: $4.38
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $3.36
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $4.64
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $7
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $4.69

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $5.13
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$0.38

No position

Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of July 6 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $3.57

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $2.49
Potential payout: $5.18
Potential profit: $2.69
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$0.41

No position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $3.25
Potential profit: $1.87
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more points?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.06

Yes position

Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.17

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.32

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.33

No position

Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.72

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.07

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?

Yes 33% 7 shares
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of July 6 2026?

No 29% 6 shares
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

No 41% 8 shares
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

No 44% 3.25 shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

No 80% 6.08 shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Yes 22% 6 shares
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Yes 56% 5.18 shares
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?

No 58% 8.14 shares
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Yes 24% 6.25 shares
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 98.4% 6.04 shares
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Yes 51% 9.94 shares
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

No 55% 9.42 shares