Polymarket Trader

acsmango

0xbf49154cb574c52db5f0dc783e69b665b38ac390

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $177.7
Realized PnL: $5.47K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 6
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.4K
Potential profit: $16.4K
User PnL: -$5.43K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $2.3K
User PnL: -$1.07K

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.1%
Current value: $100.43
Potential payout: $766.66
Potential profit: $666.22
Multiplier: 7.63x
User PnL: -$175.56

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $443.85
Potential profit: $443.85
User PnL: -$160.28

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$116

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $77.27
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $104.55
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$22.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $895.96

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $814.04

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $602.02

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $406.9

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $357.75

Yes position

S&P 500 all time high by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $355.36

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $313.58

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $247.51

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $236.71

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $168.21

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144.54

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.79

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117.39

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $116.27

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.34

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.95

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.7

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.93

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 16?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.22

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.15

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.16

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.3% 3,400 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.3% 3,300 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.8% 944.01 shares
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Yes 1.2% 900 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 99.9% 197.5 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 40% 97.5 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 33.2% 386.06 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Yes 42% 5.65 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 88.2% 100 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 86.2% 93.97 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 89.2% 112.11 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

No 58% 164.31 shares