Polymarket Trader

Polba

0xbf7f70dc9ce2324b8d33d266605bd769e6190cad

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $359.16
Realized PnL: $170.48
Win rate: 94.7%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 19
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Megaquake by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $979.99
Potential profit: $979.99
User PnL: -$78.4

Yes position

Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $499.95
Potential profit: $462.45
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$63.6

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $227.27
Potential payout: $227.27
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $152.27

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$64

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $10.9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $189.1
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$13.1

No position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $163.87
Potential profit: $163.87
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $108.48
Potential profit: $108.48
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $15.5
Potential payout: $106.52
Potential profit: $91.02
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.26
Potential profit: $105.26
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$18.48

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $57.19
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$4.69

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $59.13
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$2.13

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $59.65
Potential profit: $59.65
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $3.75
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $51.81
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.67
Potential profit: $43.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34%
Current value: $14.78
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $28.7
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $4.78

No position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.7%
Current value: $30.93
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $3.55
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.93

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.4%
Current value: $6.81
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $26.52
Multiplier: 4.89x
User PnL: -$5.19

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$11.7

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $5.53
Potential payout: $23.53
Potential profit: $18
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$2.47

Yes position

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.44
Potential profit: $21.44
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.18

No position

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.47

Yes position

Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.73

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.01

Yes position

Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.05

Yes position

Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.4

No position

Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.11

Yes position

Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

Yes position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.72

No position

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.64

No position

GPT ads by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.29

No position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.24

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.63

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?

Yes 99% 29.24 shares
GPT ads by December 31?

No 95.2% 7.35 shares
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?

Yes 74% 25 shares
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?

Yes 53% 15 shares
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?

No 3.1% 163.87 shares
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Yes 97.1% 2.06 shares
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?

No 27.6% 36.25 shares
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?

No 26% 38.46 shares
US government shutdown Saturday?

Yes 33% 181.82 shares
US government shutdown Saturday?

Yes 33% 45.45 shares
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Yes 87% 11.49 shares
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Yes 55% 3.64 shares