Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.08K
- Potential profit
- $43.08K
- User PnL
- -$2.96K
Polymarket Trader
rumblestilks
0xbfcba50979db32698fd50c17186fb0b0ba4163ef
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.67K
- Realized PnL
- $29.17K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $1.67K
- Potential payout
- $12.38K
- Potential profit
- $10.71K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$1.33K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.64K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.11K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.21K
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $995.19
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $838.01
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $535.13
Yes position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $507.05
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $452.73
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $425
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $373.29
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $356.04
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $307.11
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $252.68
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Yes 2.3% 2,632.5 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No 29.9% 1,674.56 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Yes 9.9% 5,045.37 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 23% 2,173.91 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 21.9% 2,283.5 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 20% 5,000 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Yes 9.6% 2,091.84 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Yes 9.4% 5,308.92 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Yes 9.3% 2,161.1 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Yes 16.8% 1,188.82 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 34% 588.24 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 34% 588.24 shares