Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.98K
- Potential profit
- $3.98K
- User PnL
- -$55.95
Polymarket Trader
arbus
0xbfd3c8ca7ac6b8ec7369d2b35b3eaae8a3a6359a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $105.02
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.44K
- Potential profit
- $3.44K
- User PnL
- -$168.56
Yes position
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.26K
- Potential profit
- $2.26K
- User PnL
- -$135.49
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.99K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- User PnL
- -$223.31
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $973.33
- Potential profit
- $973.33
- User PnL
- -$227.7
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?
Ends Sep 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $900
- Potential profit
- $900
- User PnL
- -$297.5
No position
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $619.54
- Potential profit
- $619.54
- User PnL
- -$173.47
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$35.3
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$30.6
Yes position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $85.71
- Potential profit
- $85.71
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14?
Ends Feb 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $55.32
- Potential profit
- $55.32
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Raiders position
Jaguars vs. Raiders
Ends Dec 29, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.74
No position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.8
No position
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.36
No position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.97
No position
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4?
Ends Apr 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.78
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.68
No position
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
Will $Trump FDV be less than $3b on inauguration day?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.56
No position
Will POTUS tweet more than 25 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?
Ends Feb 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will POTUS tweet 14-16 times Feb 7-14?
Ends Feb 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will Andrew Tate tweet 360 or more times Jan 24-31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
Will Andrew Tate tweet 160-179 times Jan 17-24?
Ends Jan 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
Yes position
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?
Ends Apr 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.11
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.44
Yes position
Will Michigan win the 2025 College Football Playoff?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.72
Yes position
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025?
Ends Feb 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.25
No position
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?
Ends Aug 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15.35
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$33.89
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?
Ends Jul 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$61.89
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 38.2% 220 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 62% 18.64 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 97.3% 180.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 94% 180.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 59% 18.64 shares
- Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?No 98.7% 50.66 shares
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?No 94% 170 shares
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?No 96.9% 118.56 shares
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes 7.7% 100 shares
- Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes 35% 85.71 shares
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?Yes 6% 2,258.17 shares
- Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?No 76.5% 142.64 shares