Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 18.3%
- Current value
- $660.87
- Potential payout
- $3.62K
- Potential profit
- $2.96K
- Multiplier
- 5.48x
- User PnL
- -$1.15K
Polymarket Trader
StopKillingBlackTransgenderKids
0xc004b035b67be284e0d1db56c39e865df6cac095
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.84K
- Realized PnL
- $9.29K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 81.8%
- Current value
- $2.96K
- Potential payout
- $3.62K
- Potential profit
- $660.87
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $1.15K
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.7%
- Current value
- $215.54
- Potential payout
- $243
- Potential profit
- $27.46
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $29.16
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5.43
- Potential payout
- $5.43
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.37
- Potential payout
- $1.37
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.37
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.42K
No position
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $585.84
No position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $511.95
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $270.32
Yes position
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $236.67
No position
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200.62
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.75
No position
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.62
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $163.67
No position
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.83
Yes position
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.42
Yes position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $137.47
No position
Trump kiss by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $136.73
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $125.53
No position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $106.01
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.2
Yes position
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.14
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $93.11
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.03
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?
Ends Mar 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.12
Yes position
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $87.84
Yes position
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.71
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.08
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 76.7% 243 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 48.1% 848.85 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 72% 694.44 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 64.8% 154.41 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 73% 1.37 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Yes 92% 5.43 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 70.4% 833.06 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 76.4% 68.94 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 80.8% 81.08 shares
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?No 96% 5.57 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 72.6% 1,183.09 shares
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?No 51.4% 274 shares