Yes position
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $540.49
- Potential payout
- $20.4K
- Potential profit
- $19.86K
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $22.72
Polymarket Trader
BasedJonStewart
0xc094f0be1359b8850b232c6119ef50d784e997a1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $12.83K
- Realized PnL
- $14.51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $2.67K
- Potential payout
- $6.29K
- Potential profit
- $3.61K
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $471.43
No position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $3.79K
- Potential payout
- $3.86K
- Potential profit
- $75.29
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $72.37
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $960.98
- Potential payout
- $3.26K
- Potential profit
- $2.3K
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$475.19
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $2.36K
- Potential payout
- $2.93K
- Potential profit
- $571.07
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $187.5
No position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 61.7%
- Current value
- $1.47K
- Potential payout
- $2.39K
- Potential profit
- $915.16
- Multiplier
- 1.62x
- User PnL
- $58.93
Yes position
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 65%
- Current value
- $616.27
- Potential payout
- $948.11
- Potential profit
- $331.84
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $169.95
Yes position
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $5.65
- Potential payout
- $869.57
- Potential profit
- $863.91
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$194.35
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $499.99
- User PnL
- -$80
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $499.96
- Potential profit
- $499.96
- User PnL
- -$69.99
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $423.66
- Potential payout
- $473.36
- Potential profit
- $49.7
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $54.44
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.19K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.82K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32K
Yes position
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $374.85
Yes position
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $326.3
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.66
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.53
Yes position
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $199.38
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hung Cao" during Virginia rally on Nov 2?
Ends Nov 2, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.1
Yes position
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186
Yes position
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.58
No position
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.39
No position
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.26
Yes position
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.44
No position
Will Trump say "Catholic" during Georgia rally on October 28?
Ends Oct 28, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85
No position
Will JD Vance say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 15+ times at AmericaFest events on December 21?
Ends Dec 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.05
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $83.09
Yes position
Trump renames Gulf of Mexico to "Gulf of America" in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82
Yes position
Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $81.96
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.18
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.88
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.2
Yes position
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.77
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?Yes 16% 14.43 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?Yes 14% 259.4 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 46% 58.87 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Yes 98% 1,961.53 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No 40.5% 400 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 44.4% 1,103.05 shares
- Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 98.3% 500 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No 96.4% 190 shares
- Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?No 47% 50 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 58% 50 shares
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No 59.2% 2,386.34 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?No 94.2% 1,492.34 shares