0xc124d59238a86A48dd265B64A062122Bc08bf81B-1773046217227

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $226.23
Potential profit: $226.23
User PnL: -$5.07

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $185.23
Potential profit: $185.23
User PnL: -$10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.9
Potential profit: $181.9
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $10.35
Potential payout: $48.24
Potential profit: $37.89
Multiplier: 4.66x
User PnL: $0.35

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.93
Potential profit: $38.93
User PnL: -$14.79

Yes position

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $28.09
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$3.68

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.97
Potential profit: $24.97
User PnL: -$4.97

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.95
Potential profit: $24.95
User PnL: -$4.97

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.9%
Current value: $9.16
Potential payout: $24.21
Potential profit: $15.05
Multiplier: 2.64x
User PnL: -$0.84

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $21.76
Potential payout: $21.77
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $6.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.03
Potential profit: $21.03
User PnL: -$9.84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.95
Potential profit: $18.95
User PnL: -$9.84

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $10.68
Potential payout: $12.35
Potential profit: $1.67
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.31
Potential profit: $12.31
User PnL: -$6.83

Yes position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $10.24
Potential payout: $12.05
Potential profit: $1.81
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.24

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.05
Potential profit: $12.05
User PnL: -$4.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.05
Potential profit: $12.05
User PnL: -$4.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.09
Potential profit: $11.09
User PnL: -$9.98

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.7%
Current value: $10.23
Potential payout: $10.93
Potential profit: $0.69
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.23

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $9.39
Potential profit: $0.89
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $2.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.23
Potential profit: $8.23
User PnL: -$4.93

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.97
Potential profit: $7.97
User PnL: -$4.93

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $5.03
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $0.85
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.41

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.88

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.51

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.25

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.64

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.11

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.96

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.64

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.61

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.48

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.01

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.36

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET