Polymarket Trader

earthStones

0xc15cad59b14079fb7a553c483ac5262c15746549

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $594.43
Realized PnL: $582.15
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $6.8
Potential payout: $13.59K
Potential profit: $13.59K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$102.17

Yes position

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $30.5
Potential payout: $12.2K
Potential profit: $12.17K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$44.49

Yes position

Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $8.87
Potential payout: $3.55K
Potential profit: $3.54K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$22.12

Yes position

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $8.52
Potential payout: $3.41K
Potential profit: $3.4K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$31.47

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 14.8%
Current value: $484.54
Potential payout: $3.29K
Potential profit: $2.8K
Multiplier: 6.78x
User PnL: $171.59

Yes position

Macron out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.81
Potential payout: $1.21K
Potential profit: $1.21K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$48.19

Yes position

MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $16.72
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.18K
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$25.28

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $516.42
Potential profit: $516.42
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 8.4%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $208.34
Potential profit: $190.84
Multiplier: 11.90x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $154.38
Potential profit: $149.13
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: $1.25

Yes position

Sam Altman in jail by June 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $106.67
Potential profit: $106.51
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.84

Yes position

Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.77
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$9.86

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $12.22
Potential payout: $90.54
Potential profit: $78.32
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $2.22

Yes position

New pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.1
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $3.16
Potential profit: $2.66
Multiplier: 6.27x
User PnL: -$0.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 25?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 24?

Ends Nov 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 22?

Ends Nov 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.33

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 23?

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.75

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 21?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 51-52°F on November 22?

Ends Nov 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.84

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be between 39-40°F on November 20?

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 25?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.12

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.11

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.98

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 20?

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.56

Yes position

Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 29?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.83

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.21

No position

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 53-54°F on November 21?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 28?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.28

Yes position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $4.16

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on November 19?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.07

Yes position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $2.5

No position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 0.6% 878.07 shares
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 0.2% 4,913.27 shares
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Yes 11% 90.54 shares
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Yes 9.6% 208.33 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 11.6% 603.45 shares
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 0.9% 2,316.88 shares
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 0.9% 1,632.06 shares
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 1.2% 1,285.88 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 8.9% 617.98 shares
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 8.9% 337.08 shares
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Yes 54% 3.7 shares
New pandemic in 2026?

Yes 10% 10 shares