PolyJaguar

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $24.1
Potential payout: $16.07K
Potential profit: $16.04K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.67K
Potential profit: $11.67K
User PnL: -$12.49

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.95K
Potential profit: $9.95K
User PnL: -$48.53

Yes position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $106.52
Potential payout: $5.2K
Potential profit: $5.09K
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$32.61

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $27.79
Potential payout: $5.05K
Potential profit: $5.03K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$5.31

Yes position

Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $36.32
Potential payout: $4.54K
Potential profit: $4.5K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: $7.37

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.52K
Potential profit: $4.52K
User PnL: -$10.17

Yes position

Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $13.41
Potential payout: $3.83K
Potential profit: $3.82K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.54

Yes position

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $21.33
Potential payout: $3.55K
Potential profit: $3.53K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $26.66
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $3.31K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$13.33

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $12.77
Potential payout: $2.84K
Potential profit: $2.82K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$15.47

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.72K
Potential profit: $2.72K
User PnL: -$23.61

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $14.21
Potential payout: $2.58K
Potential profit: $2.57K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$59.08

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $22.28
Potential payout: $2.48K
Potential profit: $2.45K
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$106.63

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $27.94
Potential payout: $2.43K
Potential profit: $2.4K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$20.65

Yes position

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $25.86
Potential payout: $2.35K
Potential profit: $2.33K
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: $18.61

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $14.54
Potential payout: $2.24K
Potential profit: $2.22K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$82.16

Yes position

Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $65.14
Potential payout: $2.17K
Potential profit: $2.11K
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: $8.64

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.79K
Potential profit: $1.79K
User PnL: -$21.64

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $69.18
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.3K
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: -$126.31

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $10.08
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.33K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$7.83

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.96
Potential payout: $1.31K
Potential profit: $1.3K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$11.03

Yes position

Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $5.65
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $1.25K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.38

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $43.46
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$84.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $723.64

Yes position

Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $681.07

Yes position

Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 3?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $325.65

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $287.61

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.42

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.29

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $115.74

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.46

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $111.82

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.84

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.77

No position

Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $85.84

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.59

Yes position

Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $75.91

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $73.57

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.9

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.69

Yes position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $69.55

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.74

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.37

Yes position

Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 23.8%
Multiplier: 4.20x
User PnL: $57.16

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.3

No position

Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?