Yes position
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $340.53
- Potential payout
- $52.39K
- Potential profit
- $52.05K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$15.77
Polymarket Trader
Zarshka
@Vincentnls
0xc1cf7d0ccb729703a5f4d97ed1045a42dbd99656
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $13.1K
- Realized PnL
- $25.51K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.57K
- Potential profit
- $7.57K
- User PnL
- -$3.78K
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $3.73K
- Potential payout
- $3.99K
- Potential profit
- $251.1
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$141.9
Yes position
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $75.09
- Potential payout
- $3.51K
- Potential profit
- $3.43K
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$20.09
Yes position
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $426.24
- Potential payout
- $3.41K
- Potential profit
- $2.98K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$560.23
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $1.42K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $1.57K
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$384.97
No position
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $2.45K
- Potential payout
- $2.57K
- Potential profit
- $115.55
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$12.84
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- User PnL
- -$687
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 81.8%
- Current value
- $1.64K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $365
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$36.5
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$1.67K
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $849.82
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $98.78
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $189
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.61K
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$188.99
Yes position
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $727.5
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $772.5
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $142.5
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $105.2
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$7.01
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- User PnL
- -$667
Yes position
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $37.27
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.02K
- Multiplier
- 28.25x
- User PnL
- -$246.98
No position
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $957
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $43
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $6.17
No position
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$460
No position
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$90
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$310
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$830
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $73.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $926.5
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $9.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $990.5
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$114.5
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $58.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $941.5
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- $6.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.16K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.85K
Ciryl Gane position
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.99K
No position
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71K
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
Gaethje position
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
No position
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $929.64
No position
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $829.2
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $766.67
Strickland position
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $710
Yes position
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $662.02
No position
Will Trump lower tariffs on Israel next?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $643
No position
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $640.02
No position
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $590
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $574.95
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $525.05
Yes position
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $490.07
No position
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $469.42
No position
Will RFK Jr. say "Endorse" during Friday address?
Ends Aug 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $464.99
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $460
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $450.01
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $450
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $445
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No 85.3% 300 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes 29% 100 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 12.4% 180.28 shares
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 87% 20 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 76% 32.38 shares
- Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 66% 3 shares
- Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 38.7% 126.35 shares
- Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 39.1% 377.25 shares
- Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 60.4% 242 shares
- Will François Ruffin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?No 62.3% 384.59 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No 33% 200 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Ciryl Gane 51% 337.99 shares